• 5 min read

🔥 Is confirmation bias killing your brand strategy?

Let’s talk about something that trips up brands without them even knowing: confirmation bias.

You know the drill—we get an idea about what’s working, or who our audience is, and then we only pay attention to data that supports that belief. Anything that doesn’t fit? We ignore it or find a reason to justify why it “doesn’t really apply to us.”

But here’s the truth: confirmation bias can steer your brand strategy straight into a wall, and you won’t even see it coming.

ITYSL meme that says:you can't change the rules just cause you don't like how i'm doing it

Let’s break down how confirmation bias sneaks into branding, the damage it can do, and—most importantly—how to kick it out of your strategy.

  1. You only see what you want in customer feedback
    Ever notice how easy it is to zero in on feedback that reinforces your existing brand story? “See, our customers totally get us!” But here’s the catch: ignoring feedback that challenges your assumptions means you’re missing out on what your audience really wants. If you’re just validating what you already believe, you’re not growing—you’re stuck.
  2. You miss out on new opportunities
    When you’re convinced you know your audience or market, confirmation bias can keep you from seeing new possibilities. Say you’re known for one product line, so you dismiss interest in an adjacent category as irrelevant. But guess what? Your competitors are already noticing that shift, and by the time you catch up, the moment’s gone.
  3. You get overconfident about campaigns that aren't working
    If you’ve ever doubled down on a campaign that felt right but wasn’t pulling the numbers, confirmation bias might be the culprit. Instead of pivoting based on actual results, we sometimes keep pouring budget into something because we believe it should work. News flash: ignoring data doesn’t make it disappear. It just makes the failure more expensive.

How to keep confirmation bias away from your brand

So, how do you guard against this bias? Here are some ways to keep your brand strategy grounded in reality instead of wishful thinking:

  1. Challenge your assumptions regularly
    Get into the habit of asking: “What if we’re wrong?” Look at customer data, market trends, and competitor analysis from a neutral perspective. Don’t be afraid to play devil’s advocate. Good strategy evolves with the facts, not with what feels comfortable.
  2. Use third-party data to gain objectivity
    If you find it hard to detach from your brand’s narrative, bring in external data sources or research agencies. Third-party insights can give you a fresh perspective, pushing you to look beyond your own assumptions and see what’s actually going on in the market.
  3. A/B test like your brand's life depends on it
    When in doubt, test it out. A/B testing allows you to see what actually resonates with your audience instead of just going with what “feels right.” Run tests on everything—campaign messaging, visuals, target audiences—so your decisions are data-driven, not just gut-driven.
  4. Surround yourself with different perspectives
    Bring in team members or advisors who aren’t afraid to disagree with you. Sometimes, the best ideas come from people who look at things completely differently. When everyone’s not just nodding along, you’re more likely to avoid echo chambers and blind spots.

Confirmation bias in the real world

I love me some context. A few examples with brands you know:

Kodak and the digital photography revolution

What happened: Kodak was once the king of film photography, but it held onto the belief that people would always prefer film. Even though Kodak actually invented the digital camera, it avoided investing in digital photography because it didn’t fit their view of what customers wanted. They assumed that customers would stay loyal to film, ignoring early signs that digital was the future.

The result: Kodak’s confirmation bias kept them from adapting to the digital age, allowing other brands like Canon and Sony to take over. Eventually, Kodak filed for bankruptcy in 2012.

Blockbuster and the rise of streaming

What happened: Blockbuster dominated the video rental industry and was convinced that people preferred going to physical stores to rent movies. When streaming started to take off, they dismissed it as a niche market. They even had an opportunity to buy Netflix for $50 million, but passed, believing streaming wouldn’t threaten their core business.

The result: Blockbuster’s confirmation bias made them overlook the shift in consumer preferences toward convenience and digital access. Netflix, on the other hand, saw where the industry was headed and leaned in. Blockbuster’s failure to adapt led to its collapse, while Netflix thrived and transformed the entire entertainment industry.

BlackBerry and the smartphone market

What happened: In the early 2000s, BlackBerry was the top choice for business professionals. The company assumed that customers only cared about having a physical keyboard and email capabilities, and it ignored the broader consumer shift toward touchscreen smartphones. They dismissed the iPhone and Android devices as consumer gadgets, assuming their loyal customers would stick with BlackBerry’s approach.

The result: BlackBerry’s confirmation bias kept them from embracing touchscreen innovation and a more versatile app ecosystem. As a result, Apple and Android smartphones quickly took over the market, and BlackBerry’s once-dominant position faded, leaving them with only a fraction of their former market share.

(anyone out there wanna write up KMart for me?

The Bottom Line

Confirmation bias can be a stealthy saboteur in brand strategy. When we’re only seeing what we want to see, we’re not making smart, growth-oriented decisions—we’re just repeating ourselves. If you want a brand that resonates, grows, and stands out, you’ve got to let go of old beliefs and follow where the data (and your customers) are actually leading you.

Ready to challenge some assumptions? Let's work together!

What to know this week

🧌 If you're active on social and getting the hate comments, you're not alone. I talked to Mikael Dia at Funnelytics about the backlash we get as creators simply for existing out loud.

🍩 Did you catch Dunkin's adorable Halloween campaign? Take a moment to swoon and have FOMO like I did. Then get a donut.

✌️ Are you trying to do too much? Some of the best things have come to me in the times I let the seeds I planted bear fruit. Make sure to allow time to breath and allow things to happen outside of your control.

🔍 So much of the joy in our human experience is in finding things out. Do you still make time for curiosity and tinkering? Here's a book if you want a deep dive.

ITYSL meme that says "when you spent months on the brand and the CEO says "our logo was fine". The image below is of Tim Robinson scrunching his face asking "is that the joke.."

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